NL East roundtable: Surprises, remaining questions and predictions for division's top 4 teams
Our four NL East beat writers examine the state of the division and the biggest stories that emerged out of spring training. The National League East, the only division in the senior circuit to have three teams in the postseason last year, is set to begin its season with a strong start from Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Miami. The biggest surprise of camp was the effectiveness of Spencer Strider’s curveball, which could make him even more dominant. Zack Wheeler's splitter was also a surprise, but few surprises were found in Phillies camp. The return of Sixto Sanchez, who hasn't pitched in a major-league game since 2020, could help the Marlins gain some innings. However, there are still questions about Chris Sale's ability to stay healthy and his ability to play well in the future.
Publicados : 4 semanas atrás por The Athletic MLB Staff no Sports
By Tim Britton, David O’Brien, Matt Gelb and Will Sammon
Last season, for the second consecutive year, the National League East was the only division in the senior circuit to place three teams in the postseason. The division boasts a behemoth in six-time defending division champ Atlanta, an October juggernaut in Philadelphia, an intriguing upstart in Miami and a team with a wide range of potential outcomes in New York. (Apologies to the Nationals. But hey, can’t wait to see Dylan Crews and James Wood!)
As the regular season opens this week, we gathered The Athletic’s four NL East beat writers to examine the state of the division and the biggest stories that emerged out of spring training. David O’Brien covers the Braves, Matt Gelb covers the Phillies, Will Sammon fills in here on the Marlins, and Tim Britton covers the Mets.
The biggest surprise of camp has been …
O’Brien: … the effectiveness of Spencer Strider’s curveball, which could make MLB’s strikeout leader even more dominant. Strider didn’t have the pitch previously in his pro career, and last season threw his explosive four-seam fastball and slider nearly 93 percent of the time. A changeup was his only other pitch. Analytics suggested that a curveball could be a better fit for his repertoire and mechanics than the changeup, and he worked on it all offseason, honing it at an advanced baseball training facility in Atlanta.
The results were convincing from his first spring outing. He not only mixed in the curveball to give hitters something else to think about, but also landed it for strikes, showing good command despite his short time throwing the pitch. He still plans to throw some changeups, but the curveball has replaced it as his third pitch and could make him even more difficult to hit than he was while averaging 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings in his first two seasons. Strider was named the Opening Day starter over Max Fried, who started Atlanta’s past three openers.
Gelb: … Zack Wheeler’s splitter. Maybe this is a stretch, but there were few surprises in Phillies camp. They entered with a roster almost identical to last season’s and few roster spots were unclaimed. The club signed Wheeler to a $126 million extension this spring, and it was further affirmation that he’s evolved into one of the best pitchers in the sport.
Could he be even better in 2024? Wheeler is always tinkering, looking for the slightest edge. Last spring, he tried a sweeping slider that he ended up using 12 percent of the time during the season. Opponents hit .198 with a .360 slugging percentage against the sweeper. But lefties hit him better than righties in 2023. So, Wheeler experimented with a splitter this spring. It was so good so fast that it raised eyebrows around Phillies camp.
The mild-mannered Wheeler is excited about the pitch. That’s all anyone needs to know.
Sammon: The most fun answer here is the return of Sixto Sanchez. He hasn’t pitched in a major-league game since 2020. Sanchez secured a spot in the bullpen after a strong spring. He can give the Marlins multiple innings, and it’s possible that he graduates to a high-leverage role.
Britton: … that Kodai Senga essentially did not participate in it. The Mets have grown frustratingly accustomed to seeing important players go down in spring training. At least that usually happens toward the end of camp, as it did with Edwin Díaz and Justin Verlander last year or Jacob deGrom the year before that. But Senga was diagnosed with a moderate posterior capsule strain in his shoulder before the Grapefruit League season ever started, and he’s only now about to pick up a ball for the first time since. That means he should be at least six weeks from returning.
Losing Senga, even if it is just for six to eight starts, removes the surest thing from a rotation of uncertainty, only accentuating the early season focus on how the Mets filled out the rest of their starting five.
What question still has to be answered?
O’Brien: Can Chris Sale stay healthy? And can he pitch the way he did after returning from a stress fracture of his scapula last summer with the Red Sox and throughout the spring with the Braves? They traded for him in December and immediately signed the seven-time former All-Star to a two-year, $38 million extension. One of baseball’s best and most durable starters from 2013 through 2018, Sale, who’ll turn 35 on Saturday, missed the 2020 season after Tommy John surgery and was limited to 31 starts over the past three seasons. But he made 20 starts in 2023, had a 3.16 ERA in the final 15 of those games, and finished with 125 strikeouts and 29 walks in 102 2/3 innings. Then, after what Sale said was his first fully healthy offseason since 2018, he posted a 3.07 ERA in five spring starts with 23 strikeouts and five walks in 14 2/3 innings. His velocity has been in the mid-90s all spring and his slider, delivered from the lanky left-hander’s low three-quarters arm slot, remains one of the nastiest pitches in baseball.
Gelb: How will the back of the rotation perform? The Phillies are bullish on Cristopher Sánchez, who threw harder this spring and unveiled a new cutter to use against righty hitters. Sánchez showed exceptional command last season as he solidified his place in a big-league rotation. He had one of the lowest walk rates in the majors from mid-June until the end of the season. But he is still a relative unknown; hitters will adjust after getting more looks at Sánchez, and how he counters remains to be seen.
Spencer Turnbull is the fifth starter because Taijuan Walker will begin the season on the injured list with a right shoulder impingement. Turnbull was a mess during his final season with Detroit. He’s a wild card in 2024. He threw a new sweeping slider this spring that has promise.
Sammon: Just how deep is the Marlins’ pitching staff? One rival scout asked a question: Subtract four starters from any rotation, and how many end up better than the group Miami will start the season with? The scout’s point: Miami’s rotation doesn’t look that great, but it’s probably better than most would expect after being down four starters.
The rotation appears to be Jesús Luzardo, A.J. Puk, Ryan Weathers, Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer. That’s not what the Marlins had envisioned but they’re without Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera to start the season. The Marlins’ young starters flashed promise in spring training, but it remains to be seen just how good and reliable Puk, Weathers and Meyer can be.
Britton: What exactly do the Mets have in Brett Baty? Baty’s spring was…fine — neither good enough to give you real confidence in a rebound nor bad enough to wince at the thought of him playing third base every day. He posted a .784 OPS and struck out less often than in 2023; he also put the ball on the ground more often, and eliminating as many groundballs as possible was a primary offseason objective for the lefty swinger.
Baty’s defense remains very much a work in progress as well, with good plays and disappointing ones mixed in throughout the spring. The Mets are carrying Zack Short on their Opening Day roster in part because he gives them a right-handed hitter capable of playing above-average defense at third. Combine that with their spring interest in J.D. Davis, and you get a sense of the club’s ambivalent belief in Baty. The offseason injury to Ronny Mauricio cost New York its clearest backup plan to Baty.
Which player unlikely to make the Opening Day roster will still have a big impact?
O’Brien: While tempting to say it’ll be one of the hard-throwing youngsters, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, it’s more likely Bryce Elder will be the first starter brought up if there’s an injury — and only a pitcher figures to make much impact among players not on the Opening Day roster. With a rotation that includes Sale, 40-year-old Charlie Morton and Fried, who had hamstring, forearm and blister issues and missed more than half of the 2023 season, there’s a reasonable chance one or more pitchers who begin the season in Triple A will end up making at least 12 to 15 starts for Atlanta.
Waldrep was pitching for the University of Florida last spring, and the Braves would prefer he spend a month or two at Triple A before he debuts. Smith-Shawver, 21, was impressive but inconsistent in five MLB starts in 2023 and again this spring. He has been pitching full-time for just four years, so he, too, could benefit from more time in Triple A. Elder was last season’s early surprise for Atlanta, making the NL All-Star team before fading in the second half, when he appeared to tire and lose some of the movement and pinpoint location he needs to compensate for lack of velocity. He’ll get another chance in the rotation this season, perhaps sooner than later.
Gelb: Orion Kerkering will not break camp with the Phillies because he needs more time to prepare. He went almost three weeks without pitching in March because the flu hit him hard. Kerkering is fine now; he hit 97 mph this week during a minor-league spring game, but the Phillies consider Kerkering an integral part of their bullpen and they didn’t want to rush him when it wasn’t necessary. Kerkering should be active on April 9.
He was an incredible story in 2023 — going from Low A to the National League Championship Series in the span of one season. But Kerkering threw almost 80 percent sliders in 2023, and there will be an adjustment to his pitch mix in 2024. A longer runway gives Kerkering additional time to test a sinker he’ll utilize more.
Sammon: Anthony Maldonado appears to be on the bubble for a final bullpen spot, but he should help the Marlins even if he doesn’t get an opportunity immediately. Maldonado has served as a closer in the minor leagues the past couple of years and impressed a couple of rival evaluators in the spring.
Britton: So this one’s kind of cheating for the Mets, because J.D. Martinez is not going to make the Opening Day roster. Since he was signed so late in the spring, Martinez is going to need more regular at-bats at Triple-A Syracuse to find his rhythm and timing before being counted on in major-league action.
It’s fairly obvious what Martinez’s bat can mean to the Mets’ lineup. His 33 home runs last season with the Dodgers came in just 113 games, and he immediately becomes the best hitter to ever bat behind Pete Alonso. (Alonso, in his platform season, couldn’t be happier about that.) Martinez also helps solve the Mets’ persistent woes against left-handed pitching; New York was over .500 against righty starters last season but 18-35 against southpaws.
If you’re looking for someone less on the radar, starter Christian Scott raised more eyebrows with his performance in spring training. A breakthrough 2023 lifted Scott into top-100 prospect consideration, and he has a strong chance of debuting in Queens sometime this season. At this point, he has the highest ceiling of New York’s next wave of pitching prospects.
O’Brien: The only thing that might keep the Braves out of the postseason is injuries. Multiple injuries. To key players. Because this is such a loaded lineup, and such an improved and deeper rotation and bullpen, one or two key injuries probably wouldn’t prevent Atlanta from winning at least a wild-card berth. And if the team stays reasonably healthy and most of its lineup and starting rotation perform as capable – not career-best seasons, just typical seasons – then the Braves could win 100-plus games for a third consecutive year. They are a consensus pick to win a seventh consecutive NL East title, though the Phillies figure to be more formidable during the regular season than they were in the past two, when the Braves finished 14 games ahead of the Phillies each season before losing to them in four-game Division Series both years.
Gelb: … everyone stays healthy. That’s a boring answer, but it’s the truth. The Phillies have a strong roster, one of the best in the majors. The top of their rotation is formidable. Their bullpen has multiple late-inning options that are interchangeable. The lineup is deep. The defense should be far better.
But the organization’s depth is not that robust. The Phillies have some useful pieces stashed at Triple A; most of them are not prospects nor could they be expected to step into regular roles if there is a cluster of injuries.
It’s a roster that looks very similar to the one that fell short a season ago. But there are meaningful differences. A full season of Bryce Harper at first base. Kyle Schwarber is the designated hitter — not the left fielder. Trea Turner should be more comfortable — and more consistent. Ranger Suárez is in the rotation to begin the season. This is a team that would be a preseason pick to win most divisions. Just not this one.
Sammon: A few of the teams projected ahead of the Marlins all fall on their respective faces again, Pérez returns and looks like a No. 1, a couple of other pitchers pop, they get solid contributions from veterans such as Josh Bell and Tim Anderson, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. stays healthy and produces the kind of dynamic numbers he is capable of.
Britton: … the starting rotation is league average. The Mets’ offense is due for better results over last year, and their bullpen looks improved even beyond the return of Díaz for the ninth inning. But their rotation started spring as the chief question mark, and it ends spring as the chief question mark thanks to Senga’s injury.
It should be said that the on-field spring performance of the starting group was exemplary. Luis Severino completed his first healthy spring training since 2018. Sean Manaea looked comfortable and confident with his evolving pitch mix. Tylor Megill was much sharper than he looked at any point last season, and Adrian Houser looked like the back-end innings-eater the Mets acquired him to be. If those versions carry over into the season, the Mets should be in good shape.
But if Severino slips, Manaea’s new arsenal gets hit hard, Megill regresses to his 2023 self, or Houser is getting hit too hard to eat innings, then New York will find itself in much the same position it did during its worst stretches of 2023.
Tópicos: Baseball, MLB, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies